Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.012647 0.014302 0.016094 0.018178 0.020535 0.023119 0.026168
2025-10-26 0.009886 0.012133 0.014769 0.018094 0.022177 0.027034 0.033258
2025-11-02 0.008380 0.010875 0.013970 0.018095 0.023457 0.030201 0.039349
2025-11-09 0.007187 0.009763 0.013106 0.017769 0.024117 0.032477 0.044358
2025-11-16 0.006466 0.009139 0.012747 0.017981 0.025401 0.035571 0.050624
2025-11-23 0.005774 0.008454 0.012201 0.017833 0.026109 0.037865 0.055913
2025-11-30 0.005368 0.008119 0.012090 0.018256 0.027621 0.041368 0.063193
2025-12-07 0.004765 0.007424 0.011378 0.017702 0.027603 0.042585 0.067115
2025-12-14 0.004318 0.006917 0.010891 0.017424 0.027951 0.044336 0.071952
2025-12-21 0.003881 0.006382 0.010304 0.016926 0.027884 0.045401 0.075742
2025-12-28 0.003726 0.006281 0.010391 0.017507 0.029590 0.049407 0.084647
2026-01-04 0.003536 0.006105 0.010336 0.017839 0.030895 0.052838 0.092849
2026-01-11 0.003373 0.005965 0.010335 0.018274 0.032434 0.056824 0.102434
2026-01-18 0.003131 0.005665 0.010039 0.018170 0.033023 0.059222 0.109425
2026-01-25 0.002930 0.005422 0.009817 0.018172 0.033791 0.061976 0.117272
2026-02-01 0.002701 0.005104 0.009434 0.017845 0.033916 0.063562 0.123052
2026-02-08 0.002569 0.004956 0.009348 0.018058 0.035063 0.067112 0.132861
2026-02-15 0.002400 0.004724 0.009085 0.017909 0.035497 0.069335 0.140249
2026-02-22 0.002318 0.004652 0.009117 0.018334 0.037082 0.073892 0.152667
2026-03-01 0.002126 0.004347 0.008674 0.017777 0.036654 0.074440 0.156930
2026-03-08 0.001982 0.004127 0.008382 0.017499 0.036765 0.076065 0.163549
2026-03-15 0.001827 0.003871 0.007998 0.016998 0.036370 0.076614 0.167908
2026-03-22 0.001792 0.003865 0.008125 0.017582 0.038315 0.082187 0.183627